Category Archives: Politics: FL-18

New Taddeo Ad — Still Mostly Positive

Here's Annette Taddeo's latest (final?) ad, focusing on health care. It's still positive.

Personally, I would have preferred something a little more negative. Taddeo has run a positive, decent, uplifting campaign. That might have won it if outside groups like the DCCC had come through with the necessary negative ads exposing Ileana Ros-Lehtinen's views on the war (for it!), uninsured poor children's healthcare (against it if it involves paying for it!), social security (let's privatize 50% of it!), and her links to the Scientologists (I gather she's their favorite Congressperson).

But for some reason the DCCC failed to come through.

Can you be too decent to be elected? Yes you can.

[ Find Your Polling Place | Voting Info For Your State | Know Your Voting Rights | Report Voting Problems ]

Posted in Politics: FL-18 | Comments Off on New Taddeo Ad — Still Mostly Positive

CQ Politics on South Florida Congressional Races

In a recognition that the race is tightening, CQ Politics, a leading observer of congressional electoral politics, has just changed its rating for FL-18, the race in which Annette Taddeo is challenging long-time incumbent Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.

CQ Politics is a conservative and lagging indicator of of the degree to which incumbents are threatened. Here are how its ratings have changed for the South Florida Congressional races:

Florida 18:
One year ago: Safe Republican
Six months ago: Safe Republican
Today: Republican Favored

Florida 21:
One year ago: Safe Republican
Six months ago: Republican Favored
Today: Leans Republican

Florida 25:
One year ago: Safe Republican
Six months ago: Republican Favored
Today: Leans Republican

Personally I'd say the Democrats are out in front in FL-21, it's very close in FL-25 (but early voting is looking good! Go Joe!), and Annette Taddeo still has a little (but less and less) ground to make up in FL-25 FL-18.

But the bottom line is clear: no one is safe this year.

Full list of CQ Politics ratings changes in US Congressional races

Posted in Politics: FL-18 | 1 Comment

Coverage of Taddeo’s Surge

The blogs are noticing what Taddeo has achieved:

Interesting note: the DCCC hasn't done much if anything for Taddeo, even while being very active in neighboring districts. I suspect the hand of Debbie Wasserman Schultz, don't you?

Posted in Politics: FL-18 | Comments Off on Coverage of Taddeo’s Surge

Taddeo Gaining Fast

New polling released today shows Taddeo has lept from a 15+ point deficit in the previous poll a couple of weeks ago to only a seven point gap among voters who have made up their minds about the race in Florida's 18th district. Most importantly, Ros-Lehtinen remains under the magic 50% — the incumbent's recent ad blitz has netted her a statistically insignificant 2% gain over the last poll while Taddeo has surged. Add in the leanings of the uncommitted and this election is nearly tied.

Why? National events — plus Taddeo's name recognition has almost doubled in the last few weeks.

Here are the key stats: Taddeo at 41% and Ros-Lehtinen at 48%, and 11% undecided. Meanwhile, 78% of [somewhat] undecided voters lean toward Taddeo; only 22% to Ros-Lehtinen. That's almost a 4:1 split. Allocate that [remaining] 11% undecided according to the same 78-22 ratio, and the candidates are within 1% of each other — 50.42 to 49.58. If these numbers are right, they must be freaking out over at Ros-Lehtinen HQ.

As the pollster's memo notes,

Ros-Lehtinen’s favorables have declined while her unfavorables have increased. Moreover, because she is so well known in the district (94% are familiar with her) Ros-Lehtinen has very little room to grow her support, while Annette Taddeo is in a far better position to become better known to the electorate.

If the election were held today, these numbers suggest it could still be a squeaker win for Ros-Lehtinen. But there's still two weeks to go — and the more McCain looks like a loser, the more that Republican voters may stay home.

Like I've said from the start, this is going to be a turnout-driven congressional election. Here in south Florida we're enjoying a full-court press by the Obama get-out-the-vote team, plus some serious field work by the Taddeo forces.

And that's why blogging may be a spotty for a while: A few days ago I volunteered to be a precinct captain for the Taddeo campaign. Starting this past weekend my kids and I have been working our way through our precinct, going door to door identifying likely voters, and talking to independent voters and other identified persuadables about why they should vote for Taddeo. So far the response has been excellent. (PS, if you live or work near me — I now have Taddeo yard signs.)

Meanwhile, you can send Taddeo a few dollars, or buy a TV ad (prices start at $100 for two or more).

[Slightly improved from original version for clarity.]

Below, full text of the Taddeo Press Release.

Continue reading

Posted in Politics: FL-18 | Comments Off on Taddeo Gaining Fast

State GOP Starts the Sliming and Fear-Mongering

I haven't gotten mine yet, but someone was kind enough to send me a scan of a GOP mailer that is going to houses around here claiming that Democrats want to “surrender” to terrorism. This particular copy was sent right to the heart of FL-18, Annette Taddeo's district.

The content of this thing is pretty ugly. Here's a shot of the worst page. You can click on it for a larger .pdf version of that page.

Mailer_10-12-08.jpg

This is accompanied by a smiling photo of Governor Charlie Crist, along with a message warning that terrorists want to kill us, and that we should vote for Republicans to “help keep America safe.” (You can download a .pdf of the entire mailer, if you want.)

Got that? The State GOP, which paid for this thing, and the formerly post-partisan Governor, are saying that Democrats want to surrender to terrorists. Talk about low-class smear jobs…

Does anyone actually think that Democrats want to surrender to terrorism? Most Democrats want to make an orderly exit from Iraq. So, the polls tell us, does most of the country. (And, for what it's worth, during the second Presidential debate it was Obama who took the more bellicose approach towards chasing down bin Laden, not McCain.)

It used to be that we only saw stuff like this in the last week before election day. But the GOP wants absentee ballots, and early voting starts soon, so here we go.

Posted in 9/11 & Aftermath, Florida, Politics: FL-18 | 11 Comments

Video: Taddeo Smacks Down Ileana Ros-Lehtinen on Social Security

Thanks to Eyeonileana (FL-18: Annette Taddeo instructs incumbent on Social Security) for the link to this video:

I wish everyone in the 18th Congressional District could see this: Democrats are sometimes accused, occasionally even with justice, of fear-mongering on Social Security. But with this incumbent it's all true: she really does support 50% privatization — and if she'd had her way, in the future people who depend on Social Security would be very very vulnerable.

Posted in Politics: FL-18 | Comments Off on Video: Taddeo Smacks Down Ileana Ros-Lehtinen on Social Security