Good News (for us): We've been downgraded to a mere Tropical Storm Watch. Frances the Slow is now on land, terrorizing other people — don't know about casualties, but there seems to be significant property damage and a lot of people are without power.
Bad News (for us): Ivan is now a Hurricane and he's headed straight for us.
National Hurricane Center IVAN IS STRENGTHENING RATHER RAPIDLY AT THIS TIME. THE EYE IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AT LEAST 75 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY. THIS MAKES IVAN THE STRONGEST TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR SUCH A LOW LATITUDE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN RECORDS. CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER ALL QUADRANTS OF THE HURRICANE. ALL PARAMETERS SEEM TO BE IN PLACE FOR IVAN TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING…AND THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS WILL BECOME THE SEASON'S FOURTH MAJOR HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE…AND IT MAY BE CONSERVATIVE.
This confirms my admittedly unscientific belief that the more hype a storm gets the less likely it is to do significant damage.
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