Bottom line of the latest Hurricane WILMA Discussion: We know there is a big storm and it will hit the tip of Mexico. We all agree it will head for Florida next and hit some time after 7am Monday, maybe much later, and hit somewhere in the state, at some intensity. It might be horrible. It might not be. We don’t expect to know much more until Saturday at the earliest, and probably not until Sunday. (By which point it will be too late to do much.)
IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME…THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED. FORTUNATELY FOR THE SAKE OF BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS… THE NOGAPS NO LONGER KEEPS WILMA IN THE CARIBBEAN FOR FIVE DAYS AND IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE REMAINING MODELS. THIS RESULTS IN THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS BEING IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT DAYS 3-5. HOWEVER… THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS REMAINS QUITE LARGE… AND BOTH THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE IMPACTS ON FLORIDA REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN STEADILY WEAKENING WILMA OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE PRIMARILY TO INCREASING SHEAR. HOWEVER… IF WILMA DOES NOT SPEND MUCH TIME OVER YUCATAN… IT COULD BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST WHEN IT CROSSES FLORIDA.
