Monthly Archives: July 2008

Miami Wakes Up to Political Normality (This is Good for Democrats)

David Rieff has a long piece in tomorrow's NYT magazine about Cuban-American politics in Miami, provocatively titled, Will Little Havana Go Blue?.

The main conclusions track what those of us who live here see around us: Cuban-American politics are being changed by a generational shift (a rising generation that is American first and treats its hyphen much they way other ethnic groups do), and a political differences between recent immigrants and the revanchists who have been here 40-50 years. The recent escapees are much less willing to support policies that prevent them sending money to relatives left behind, and which limit their ability to visit their families still trapped in Cuba.

The result is a breakage of the monolithic support for the GOP and for its candidates. Particularly hurt are the Diaz-Balart brothers, who suffer from poor constituent services and a failure to bring home the kind of bacon that their storied predecessors — Claude Pepper, Dante Fascell — did.

Although Rieff doesn't address this directly, it turns out that Joe Garcia's vicious mockery of the Diaz-Balarts as a “one trick pony” may be right on the mark.

Rieff's piece contains another bit of wisdom. Miami's shift to normal politics away from unthinking equation of the GOP as the natural home for Cuban-Americans does not mean automatic victory for Democrats.

The lesson for local campaigners is obvious: Cuban-Americans being up for grabs means that they will need to be addressed in the same way as other swing constituencies: with appeals on the issues they care about (housing, jobs, health, social security, as well as Cuba) and — and this is probably key — turnout will rule. The community is no longer monolithic. Just like with many other communities that means whoever gets out their voters will win.

It's going to be a turnout election down here.

Posted in Miami, Politics: FL-25/FL-27, Politics: US: 2008 Elections | 4 Comments

Brad DeLong Seeks an Adjustment

Brad DeLong had a bad experience, recounted at Every Time I Try to Crawl Out, They Pull Me Back in!

Sample:

I trot over to the J-School TV studio as part of the sober, sensible, bipartisan consensus, intending to carry water for Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson.

And what do I find also on BBC/Newsnight when I get there?

I FIND THAT I AM ON WITH GROVER-FRACKING-NORQUIST!! I FIND THAT I AM ON WITH GROVER-FRACKING-NORQUIST!!! WHO HAS THREE POINTS HE WANTS TO MAKE:

  • Barack Obama wants to take your money by raising your taxes and pay it to the Communist Chinese.
  • Oil prices are high today and the economy is in a near recession because of Nancy Pelosi: before Nancy Pelosi became speaker economic growth was fine—and she is responsible for high oil prices too.
  • Economic growth is stalling because congress has not extended the Bush tax cuts. Congress needs to extend the Bush tax cuts, and if it does then that will fix the economy, and if it doesn't then the economy cannot recover.

Brad says he has to be medicated better to deal with this nonsense. (“OK. Calm down. Adjust my meds…”)

Or, it seems, being an economist, instead of being better medicated, he could just be better paid….

I am not paid enough to deal with this lying bullshit. I am not paid enough to deal with Grover Norquist and his willful stream of defecation into the global information pool.

It is is amazing how few liberal equivalents to Fred Barnes, Grover Norquist and that whole merry crew exist. Or maybe they exist and don't get media time. I'm not saying there's no one, but there's few and they're not on nearly as often.

Then again, on these issues, there probably are not a lot of responsible conservative economists willing to attack Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson right now.

Posted in Econ & Money: Mortgage Mess | Comments Off on Brad DeLong Seeks an Adjustment

FIU Law Dean Leonard Strickland Announces Resignation

At neighboring FIU, founding Dean Leonard Strickman has announced his resignation, effective a year from now. (This is the usual heads-up to allow a school to find a replacement.) Strickman's tenure was noted by several achievements, notably recruiting a serious faculty and steering FIU law to accreditation in the shortest possible time.

Interestingly, the announcement appears in FIU Law's online newspaper which appears to have a thriving comments section. One of the goals of UM's draft strategic plan is to create an online space for student-faculty and student-student interaction. Whether ours is going to be purely student-run, or have a dose of administrative intervention remains to be determined as do many questions about focus, access and comments policy. Perhaps here UM can learn from FIU's example.

Personally, whoever rides herd on it, I hope we create a forum that is as open as possible — while having some sort of mechanism to promote civility.

Posted in Miami | Comments Off on FIU Law Dean Leonard Strickland Announces Resignation

A Taste of What Real-Time Data Can Do

From Emergent Chaos: Leveraging Public Data For Competitive Purposes who will I hope forgive me for quoting an entire post, but it's just so amazing:

The Freakonomics blog pretty much says it all:

The latest: importgenius.com, the brainchild of brothers Ryan and David Petersen, with Michael Kanko. They exploit customs reporting obligations and Freedom of Information requests to organize and publish — in real-time — the contents of every shipping container entering the United States.
From importgenius.com.

There’s a neat ticker on the bottom of their page showing a trickle of these data. Watch it for a few minutes: it’s mesmerizing and provides a sometimes beautiful window into the wonders of international trade.

Talk about a not-so-covert channel leaking what your business is up to on a daily basis. What the Petersens and Kanko are onto is yet another unintended consequence of globalization. It makes me wonder what other sources like this are out there and accessible via the Freedom of Information Act. Similarly, as one commenter on the above article asked, how soon before people try to game the system:

I wonder if something like this will lead to a rise in ‘creative’ customs declarations. Say a proxy company to take that new shipment of 22,000 digital thingies that are then immediately sold to Apple and thus mitigating the chances of someone predicting the street date of their latest offering

Posted in Internet | Comments Off on A Taste of What Real-Time Data Can Do

Friday McBush Bashing (“I Hate the Bloggers” Edition)

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Posted in Politics: McCain | 1 Comment

Is McCain a “Natural Born Citizen”?

Any naturalized citizen can run for any office in the land — except for President and Vice-President. They have to have been citizens at time of birth. That, at least, is how I and almost everyone reasonable reads the relevant Constitutional clause — it's not about Caesarians.

Everyone agrees that persons born in the USA are natural born citizens. Almost everyone agrees that persons born outside the US who qualify for birth citizenship pursuant to a statute are also “natural born citizens” and eligible to be President. That's certainly my view. A few people have argued that only persons born here are “natural born” citizens, and that other class of birthright citizens are not sufficiently “natural”, but I think that's a losing argument, and it hasn't gained much traction.

John McCain was famously born in the Canal Zone — not in the US. But both his parents were citizens, so that's no problem, right?

Not so fast.

From Adam Liptak's latest, A Citizen, but “Natural Born”? McCain's Eligibility to Be President Is Disputed by Professor, we learn of a serious argument against McCain's eligibility.

The analysis, by Prof. Gabriel J. Chin, focused on a 1937 law that has been largely overlooked in the debate over Mr. McCain's eligibility to be president. The law conferred citizenship on children of American parents born in the Canal Zone after 1904, and it made John McCain a citizen just before his first birthday. But the law came too late, Professor Chin argued, to make Mr. McCain a natural-born citizen.

What about citizenship by descent? There was a glitch.

At the time of Mr. McCain’s birth, the relevant law granted citizenship to any child born to an American parent “out of the limits and jurisdiction of the United States.” Professor Chin said the term “limits and jurisdiction” left a crucial gap. The Canal Zone was beyond the limits of the United States but not beyond its jurisdiction, and thus the law did not apply to Mr. McCain.

Which is why the 1937 law was needed in the first place.

The Supreme Court has relied on far less pettifogging distinctions to deny the right to sue to whole classes of workers. Surely a 'strict constructionist' court would read the law this way too? (The counter-argument is the sort of purpositive reading of law that conservatives usually claim to eschew, namely that this is a crazy result that Congress couldn't have meant in the earlier law, and the '37 act was just housecleaning.)

Mr. Liptak suggests we'll never know, as (despite there having been a suit on this issue filed in New Hampshire) there is probably no one with standing to sue, a legal term that approximates the concept of direct, palpable or probable, person injury of a kind not shared equally with all citizens. Prof. Chin suggests that if McCain is elected, the Vice President-elect will have standing, but is unlikely to sue.

I think the standing argument is probably right. Even so, it would be nice to think that the issue could get into court, but not to throw McCain out of the election, which would be a travesty. As Prof. Chin rightly says, “Presidential candidates who obtained their citizenship after birth are no more likely to be disloyal than those born citizens, and the People of the United States should be allowed to elect whomever they choose.” (Insert “shortly” before “after birth” if it makes you feel better.)

No, the reason to wish this would get into court is that it would provide a strong excuse for knocking the stuffing out of the largely pernicious Insular Cases which form the basis for the argument of McCain's ineligibility. The Insular Cases are the basis for the argument — wrong in my opinion — that most of the Constitution stops at the water's edge. I believe that the Constitution applies to the officials whose offices exist under it whereever they act. I don't think non-US citizens abroad have constitutional rights like US citizens at home or abroad do, but I don't think that government officials lose the shackles of law when they cross the border. Too often — think Guantanamo — our officials act as if they do, and their lawyers try to justify it in court.

Posted in Law: Constitutional Law | 17 Comments