The best analysis I've seen so far of the politics of the Sotomayor nomination is SCOTUSblog, The Dynamic of the Nomination of Sonia Sotomayor.
I don't agree with every word, but the key points seem right:
- Obama has the votes for this;
- That won't stop the interest groups from going berserk, because that's what they do and they get rich off it;
- Key Republicans will take a dive because the costs of opposition are too great;
- The Republicans, and the interest groups, will exact payback on the next one.
I think that the crazies will attempt a stand but find that there are not 40 GOP senators willing to mount hypocritical filibuster.
The crazies will be more intent on visiting vengeance on the members of the GOP caucus who refused to drink their kool-aid.
They may well expect payback, but they shouldn’t get it.
Lord knows the GOP was as overbearing a majority party as ever there was.
If we are so lucky, I would expect a nasty surprise in their future.