Monthly Archives: July 2012

Random Citation Watch

I have a search on Google Scholar that lets me know when a paper of mine has been cited. It’s very interesting to see the odd places my work washes up. But every so often there’s a truly mysterious citation, and today’s is a new contender for the bizzaro record holder: Ravshan Rakhmanov and Nigora Safarova Olimovna, Sources Of Violence Seen In Biosocial Nature Of Man, 1 Asian Journal Of Social Sciences & Humanities 142 (2012).

The authors, who identify as being from the Department of Social Studies, Navoi Pedagogical Institute, Republic Of Uzbekistan, have written a short (3.4 page) paper on, well, something. Here is the conclusion:

However, the violence generating terror is effective only for the solution of tactical problems. In the strategic plan, sooner or later it leads to psychological exhaustion: people get tired of being afraid and then a long terror seldom happens to be effective. Anyway never happens to be constant. Any violence should be proved – the nature of human thinking demands it. Especially it is related to political violence. Certainly the relation of a society and a state to violence is defined by many reasons – history and cultural traditions of the people, a certain political and economic situation, personal qualities of those who have power, the level of development or structures of the civil society or on the contrary. However abstracting from concrete conditions and features of this or that country, it is possible to allocate some factors promoting the fact that violence becomes not extreme but a necessary action and norm and a part of official political ideology of the state. The relation of a democratic state to violence is connected with such sight at the person. It is supposed to be only as an exclusive measure in relation to minority of the population. The mass political violence is essentially rejected. An opposite view on a person, disbelief that people are inclined to voluntary follow the standard norms of behaviour and they are silly and aggressive by nature, of course leads to a conclusion about the necessity to constrain the destructive tendencies inherent in people by force or threat to apply it. The consequence of such approach is justification of political violence and, as a whole, orientation to dictatorship. Really, if to agree that historical process is chaotic and leads to destruction and death, the violent measures used to resist such chaos and destruction can be perceived not only as quite comprehensive but also as even humane and necessary and the accompanying violence to the victim – as inevitable.

I’ve read it twice and am afraid to do so again in case I get cross-eyed.

The citations are gloriously multi-lingual (English, German, and something Cyrillic) and I suspect beautifully random. In addition to my Wrong Turn in Cyberspace article the bibliography includes works with titles such as “Network-Centric Operations Case Study: Air-to-Air Combat With and Without Link”, “Handbook of Telecommunications Economics” and — my favorite — “Skew-Tolerant Circuit”.

Posted in Readings | 1 Comment

Why (or Rather How & When) the Stock Market Outperforms Other Investments

This discovery, reported by Kevin Drum is very very odd:

They examined stock market returns over the past two decades and discovered that virtually all of the excess return occurs in a series of 24-hour periods eight times a year. Take away those 24-hour periods, and stock market returns are about what you’d expect them to be.

So what are these 24-hour periods? They’re the periods from noon the day before Federal Reserve announcements until 2:15 on the day of the announcement. During those periods, stocks rise an average of about 50 basis points. That’s the red line in the chart on the right. During every other three-day period, stocks do nothing on average. That’s the black line at the bottom of the chart.

What does this mean in aggregate? Since 1994, the S&P 500 has risen from about 400 to 1300. If you remove the three-day periods surrounding FOMC announcements, it’s barely risen at all.

Huh?

Posted in Econ & Money | Comments Off on Why (or Rather How & When) the Stock Market Outperforms Other Investments

Get Your LIBOR Scandal Updates

Latest news and reactions at Blenderlaw (U. Miami prof Caroline Bradley).

Posted in Econ & Money | Comments Off on Get Your LIBOR Scandal Updates

I Hate to Think How Much Someone Got Paid to Do This

Fresh into my mailbox: Happy Birthday from UM

The link, incidentally, takes you to a really tacky video.

And no, it’s not my birthday today, although they did get the right month.

Posted in U.Miami | Comments Off on I Hate to Think How Much Someone Got Paid to Do This

North Korea Finds New Way to Be Inscrutable

This is way weirder than the fiction I’ve been reading lately:

Kim Jong-un Appears With Disney Characters on North Korean TV:

North Korean state-run television on Monday showed footage of costumed versions of Tigger, Minnie Mouse and other Disney characters prancing in front of the leader, Kim Jong-un, and an entourage of clapping generals.

The footage also showed Mr. Kim in a black Mao suit watching as Mickey Mouse conducted a group of young women playing violins in skimpy black dresses. At times, scenes from the animated Disney movies “Dumbo” and “Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs” were projected on a multipanel screen behind the entertainers; an article in the state-run press said unnamed foreign songs were on the bill.

The appearance of the characters from the United States, North Korea’s mortal enemy, was remarkable fare on tightly controlled North Korean television, which usually shows more somber and overtly political programs. A Disney spokeswoman, Zenia Mucha, had no comment Monday beyond a statement: “This was not licensed or authorized by the Walt Disney Company.”

This seems more like Dada than late failed autarcho-Communism. What gives?

Posted in Politics: International | Comments Off on North Korea Finds New Way to Be Inscrutable

Electoral Math for the 2012 Presidential Race

Here’s about half of what you need to know to understand the manoeuvrings in the upcoming Presidential election (most of the other half is where the money is coming from, and unless the courts do something unexpected, that’s going to be kept secret from you):

It takes 270 electoral votes to get elected. (The system overweights small states, since every state gets at least three electoral votes regardless of population as does DC.) For the large majority of the country, the election is already nearly over. Most states are either safe for one candidate or the other, or leaning hard enough in one direction that, assuming no horrible surprises or scandals and assuming a competent ground game, we can predict the result.

Add it up and President Obama has 185 in the bag and 32 leaners. He needs 53 more to win.

Mitt Romney has 158 electoral votes in the bag, and 48 leaners. He needs 64 more to win.

Thus, unless the money available to the Romney campaign is so great that they can peel off some Obama leaners, the real fight will be over the 115 electoral votes in the so-called swing states. That’s where the biggest expenditures — the giant ad barrages and more — will be. Those are the places where the candidates will go most often, and towards which they will craft their messages. And those are the places where, if you happen to live there, your vote will count the most.

And, naturally, Florida leads the list (numbers are electoral votes):

Florida 29
Pennsylvania 20
Ohio 18
Virginia 13
Wisconsin 10
Colorado 9
Iowa 6
Nevada 6
New Hampshire 4

I think Obama loses Florida and Iowa, and I don’t feel great about Wisconsin.

I think Romney loses Ohio and Nevada and is looking weak in New Hampshire.

So if Obama can win Pennsylvania and Colorado, does that put him over the top?

Alternately, I think if Obama wins either Florida or Virginia, he gets re-elected. Conversely, if Romney wins Pennsylvania or Ohio, his chances have to look good.

Predictions, anyone?

Data Source: NY Times, The Electoral Map – Presidential Race Ratings and Swing States – Election 2012

Posted in 2012 Election | 3 Comments