The Electoral College Challenge by by Martin Longman at Political Animal paints Florida as key to the next election.
Guess that means a lot of very repetitive TV ads. Good thing I never watch live TV and can fast forward through them all.
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On the other hand, how’s everybody polling down there? Does it matter if Trump/Rubio/Jeb/Cruz is the nominee against Clinton or Sanders? What other big ballot initiatives coulld drive folks to the polls?
The only initiatives I’ve heard of are a pretty limited medical marijuana legalization, and two competing solar energy initiatives: one real one, and one fake, a spoiler by the incumbent power companies. But to be honest I’ve not paid close attention, and don’t even know how close any of those are to getting enough signatures to qualify. There’s a whole bunch of stuff people are apparently trying to get on the ballot at ballotpedia, but I never heard of any of it, not even the $10 minimum wage one.
And, it looks like the solar power amendment is dead. Which is a shame: if there’s one thing we usually have around here, it’s sun.
(Have I been hacked or have you? I keep getting redirected to an ad site.)
Anyway, this is why it must be Rubio. I don’t know how they get there but Trump has a ceiling. Jeb is too weak. Cruz is unlikeable. Carson is a savant with skills in neurosurgery, but little else. Kaisch and Fiorina are VP options, but are too far behind to make it to the nomination.
That leaves Rubio who is Hispanic, speaks Spanish (and is willing to lie about his immigration position in Spanish), is young, and guarantees Florida. That means that the Republicans need only flip Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Colorado bring give the Republicans the Presidency. Colorado (or maybe Nevada) become much easier with Rubio. I don’t think North Carolina is going to vote for a Democrat this year. Any choice other than Rubio and it just doesn’t matter. I hope that Rubio is not the nominee being as how he is the only option for the Republicans to retake the White House.
On Super Tuesday (March 1) the nomination fight on the Republican side will be de facto Cruz vs. Rubio or Trump vs. the anti-Trump (split between Cruz and Rubio, but with one having a clear lead). It’s still 10 weeks away. Cruz may win Iowa, but over the next 10 weeks, he will be whittled away with a drip, drip, drip of bad press, oppo research, and dirty tricks so the establishment can have Rubio (flawed though he may be he is the only option) as the nominee.
I think the ad re-direction is probably something on your machine. If you are using IE look for an evil add-on. Run Malwarebytes and hitman pro.
On Florida, what about the ‘draft Ryan’ brokered convention scenario?
Well, besides the fact that I don’t think Ryan is as strong a candidate as Rubio with respect to any state (he couldn’t pull Wisconsin for Romney), he is/will be tainted goods by the time the Convention rolls around because of his Speaker of the House tenure. Basically, the Republican party cannot win the White House without some luck given demographics. Without Rubio, they cannot win the White House at all. Winning the Presidency means holding a general, overall competition at the national level and winning individual states. Not even Rubio could win a national vote (if that was how the campaign was actually ran), but he can maintain his own at that level enough that he has a chance to get lucky/win the electoral college (the popular vote will likely lean Democratic no matter who is elected).
So I hope you do a post on the Sanders/Clinton data fight. It seems so rich a field for you with the intersection of privacy, civil and criminal law (CFAA has been brought up), and technology. It’s not even clear that all the queries were disallowed. The targets were not “Clinton” voters at all since all voters are visible to all campaigns. The targets were Clinton specifc parts of that data. I am still unclear whether the syntax of the queries were allowed in the software and just returned confidential information inappropriately in this case or if the syntax was disallowed except in given the software glitch. I am also unclear about what these lists that were saved are. It sounds like noone downloads anything and that you have private folders (imagine if that access was compromised) on the server. I am interested to know how NGPVAN disables export of data (is it a technical solution?) I wonder if you have to construct (and pay?) for each export so that the process of creating the list, accessing the list, and downloading the list are all separate. I mean I am so geeky that I even wonder if it creates a separate file when a list is saved to private folder or whether it just flags it as positive hit in your query. Has Volokh commented or Kerr (I guess I should check but I really don’t like going over there).
This all seems pretty fact-dependent and I have no clear sense what the facts are. Plus, I’m supposed to be grading a Very Large Pile of exams.