Category Archives: COVID-19

More Shrill, Please

covid deaths 2021

USA #2 in Covid Deaths per million in 2021 (Johns Hopkins via Kevin Drum). Click for larger image.

Charles M. Blow is shrill today,

It is a luxury to be irresponsible in a society where others will be responsible for you, where you simply assume that you are safer because others take the appropriate precautions to be safe: You do not need to get the shot because others have.

But the Delta variant is testing that faith.

You will not be safe as an unvaccinated person riding on the coattails of the vaccinated. Delta is extremely transmissible and unremitting. It is stronger than its progenitor.

As the Delta variant surges there is an uptick in the pace of vaccinations in the country. It’s almost like religion: Many disbelievers will call out to whatever God there may be when the reaper is at the door. Fear of ideological defeat is no match for the fear of imminent death. And yet, it shouldn’t have taken another surge of sickness and death for good sense to set in.

Why were Americans turning away a vaccine that many people in other parts of the world were literally dying for? Many did so because of their fidelity to the lie and their fidelity to the liar. They did it because they were — and still are — slavishly devoted to Trump, and because many politicians and conservative commentators helped Trump propagate his lies.

It was all lunacy. It is all lunacy. This should never have happened. There are people dead today — a lot of them! — who should still be alive and who would be if people in the heights of government and the heights of the media had not fed them lies about the virus.

But apparently, after you get so used to so much blood on your hands, you forget — or make yourself forget — that you weren’t born with red palms.

I think we need much more of this. It is time to call out the politicians and TV/Radio stars who inveigled against the COVID vaccine — and most especially those vaccinated themselves — and say, in the sort of plain speaking that responsible people in public debate have tended to avoid, that opinion-makers who led people to mistrust the COVID vaccine are killers.

In particular, it is past time to call out, in the harshest terms, those Governors who–while claiming they are protecting freedom and choice–prohibit localities in their states from imposing mask mandates and other COVID precautions  That includes Texas Governor Greg Abbott and of course our own Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

That is not protecting choice, that is protecting irresponsible and potentially deadly behavior.  It is no more responsible than telling people it’s OK to drive on the wrong side of the road, and those traffic-cop supporters are against freedom. We’d call that out, wouldn’t we?

Posted in COVID-19 | 8 Comments

Oh Rats

First it was zoo animals like large cats, bears and gorillas that could get COVID. Then if was house cats. Then it was wild deer who might be COVID carriers.

Now it’s rats. And there are millions of rats in large cities.

 

Posted in COVID-19 | 4 Comments

On the Legality of Mandatory Vaccinations Rules for Highly Communicable Diseases

I presume it’s a no-brainer in most states that if a private employer wants to require that employees be vaccinated or wear masks on the jobs then the employer can do this unless the employee has a legitimate medical reason not to, in which case there would be an ADA issue. If the objection is religious (e.g. Christian Scientists), there would be a claim for a reasonable accommodation if one can be arranged.

But what if it’s the government making the order? Leaving aside for a minute the issue of the policy wisdom of a governmental mandatory vaccine order, does the Constitution permit the government, state or federal, to require obedience to a state’s duly promulgated mandatory vaccination rule, assuming the rule has exceptions for medical and religious reasons?

Comes now the 7th Circuit, in a 3-0  opinion written by no less than Judge Easterbrook, to say in Klaassen v. Trustees of Indiana Univ. that this is not a hard case at all:

Given Jacobson v. Massachusetts, 197 U.S. 11 (1905), which holds that a state may require all members of the public to be vaccinated against smallpox, there can’t be a constitutional problem with vaccination against SARS-CoV-2. Plaintiffs assert that the rational-basis standard used in Jacobson does not offer enough protection for their interests and that courts should not be as deferential to the decisions of public bodies as Jacobson was, but a court of appeals must apply the law established by the Supreme Court.

Plaintiffs invoke substantive due process. Under Washington v. Glucksberg (1997), and other decisions, such an argument depends on the existence of a fundamental right ingrained in the American legal tradition. Yet Jacobson, which sustained a criminal conviction for refusing to be vaccinated, shows that plaintiffs lack such a right. To the contrary, vaccination requirements, like other public-health measures, have been common in this nation.

Again, wisdom and legality are not the same thing, but as far as legality is concerned this is I think absolutely correct on the law as it relates to mandatory vaccination rules. 

I would venture to guess that the federal government could justify a similar rule under the commerce power. I would also venture to guess that the extension of the vaccination rule to a state (or federal) masking rule for the duration of an epidemic would not be very difficult.

Posted in Civil Liberties, COVID-19, Law: Constitutional Law | 5 Comments

Oh Deer

© 2010 James Marvin Phelps.
Licensed via CC BY-NC 2.0

Deer get COVID — and in Michigan at least, lots of deer have been exposed to COVID.

Does this mean deer are the new bats? Is this a reservoir of illness that can be transmitted to humans? Another incubator for variants? Is Bambi going to be a horror story?

It seems no one knows…

Posted in COVID-19 | 1 Comment

Pros and Cons of Mandatory COVID Vaccination Rules

America’s Finest News Source investigates and offers this list:

Pros

  • Fake vaccination cards very lucrative business opportunity
  • Good way to keep HR department busy for a few months
  • Would saves millions of innocent profits
  • Always fun to piss off Eric Clapton
  • Surely there’s at least some benefit in taking rudimentary public health measures

Cons

  • Cruise ships more exciting when there a public health threat on board
  • Could cripple America’s burgeoning ventilator industry
  • Just came up with new argument about how this is related to Holocaust
  • Waste of perfectly good needles intended for intravenous opiate use
  • Violates deeply held American values of recklessly endangering others

I suppose we could add some items, but it’s a start.

Needle photo ©torange.biz and licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License Creative Commons License .

Posted in Completely Different, COVID-19 | 29 Comments

Is There a Powerful COVID Infection Rate Predictor?

Interesting Twitter thread about the following question: If you plot the US state-by-state  COVID infection rates since Sept 1, 2020–i.e. the recent and now receding surge–which is a better predictor:

  1. The percent of the population infected before Sept 1, or
  2. The margin of Biden’s victory in the state?

You might expect that states which had lots of COVID before Sept. 1 would have more of it after Sept. 1 for the same reasons they were getting it earlier. Or, I suppose, you might expect the reverse: states learn from their mistakes, and if infection rates were higher earlier then more people have immunity, so there’s a negative relationship between earlier infection rates and later infection rates.

According to Youyang Gu, both of those expectations are broadly wrong:COVID before/after Sept 1 2020

Instead, the single variable with the most predictive power is how strongly states voted for Biden.
COVID Infection vs Biden Vote

As commenters in the thread note, at an R-squared of about 0.5, this is not a fully explanatory variable–there’s a lot going on, no doubt. Youyang Gu’s suggestive claim is only that as single-variable explanations go, this is the most powerful.

Posted in 2020 Election, COVID-19 | Comments Off on Is There a Powerful COVID Infection Rate Predictor?