Category Archives: Econ & Money

Versailles Without the War

Dr Johannes Bell signs the Treaty of Versailles in the Hall of Mirrors, with the various Allied delegations sitting and standing in front of him. (Wikimedia)The Greek deal is a vicious blunder. Yves Smith:

The cost of Greece avoiding a Grexit is submitting to becoming an economic serf of the Eurozone, subject to even more draconian austerity than was ever on the table before. … The Greek government still has to pass four bills by the 15th and another two by the 22nd to comply. It’s not clear that that will take place.

…. This deal is simply vicious. This is far and away the most one-sided agreement I’ve ever seen, by an insanely large margin. Even the language is shamelessly punitive. For instance, the document repeatedly mentions that all the previous terms under consideration will need to be made vastly more stringent in light of the deterioration of the economy and how the Greek government needs to prostrate itself to gain the trust of the creditors.

This deal appears to be designed to prolong long-term pain without doing much for the short-term. It’s a dagger in the guts of Europe. What a tragedy.

Not even a token haircut for the creidtors: bonds win, everyone else, including the non-Greek members of the EU (not least Germany) loses. Only problem is that the Germans don’t seem to see what this will cost them politically in the long run. #ThisIsACoup indeed.

Watching this train wreck happen for the last month(s) has been the closest thing in my life to what I imagine it must have felt like to follow the developments leading up to the start of World War I: inexorable stupidity meeting inflexible rigidity, all in fairly slow motion. And of course it’s not close to over.

Posted in Econ & Money, Politics: International | 1 Comment

Krugmania

Awesome!

Posted in Econ & Money | Comments Off on Krugmania

Nutty, Even By Relaxed Modern Standards

TPM, With Eye on Fiscal Armageddon, Texas Set to ‘Repatriate’ Its Gold To New Texas Fort Knox.

On Friday, Gov. Greg Abbott signed legislation that will create a state-run gold depository in the Lone Star State – one that will attempt to rival those operated by the U.S. government inside Fort Knox and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s vault in lower Manhattan. “The Texas Bullion Depository,” Abbott said in a statement, “will become the first state-level facility of its kind in the nation, increasing the security and stability of our gold reserves and keeping taxpayer funds from leaving Texas to pay for fees to store gold in facilities outside our state.” Soon, Abbott’s office said, the state “will repatriate $1 billion of gold bullion ((As you will see if you read the article, this is malarky. There is no such $1 billion in gold from the Federal Reserve in New York to Texas.” In other words, when it comes preparing for the currency collapse and financial armeggedon, Abbott’s office really seems to think Texas is a whole ‘nother country

Just read it. And weep.

PS. Bonus crazy:

Indeed, Texas has no gold bars in the Federal Reserve’s New York vault. And what the state has is not worth a billion dollars. Instead some 4,200 gold bars bought in 2011 by the University of Texas’s endowment fund (the second largest in the country after Harvard’s) are stored in the basement vault of HSBC’s headquarters at 450 5th Avenue in New York City, just south of the New York Public Library. For the last four years, the endowment has paid an estimated $1 million per year to store their gold there. (If it had been at the New York Fed the cost would have totaled about $15,400 over that period). And the new depository law does not require the university’s endowment fund to relocate the gold to Texas.

How did UT end up holding actual gold?

In 2010 and 2011, … the University of Texas Investment Management Company’s board of directors … put nearly 5% of the then-$19 billion university and pension fund they manage into physical gold by converting options into bullion. …

When the endowment fund bought the gold, their basis for calculating a return – called their cost basis – was $1,150.17 per ounce. The fund eventually traded a third of their physical gold stake for gold futures and other equities, but never reduced their overall exposure to gold. That’s why they still own about 4,200 bars worth just under $500 million. After a significant run-up and subsequent fall in 2012, gold traded on Monday at $1,186. Over more than four years that just a 3% gain for the fund before you account for the cost of housing the gold in New York [which is $1 million / year] and the transaction costs that will be incurred if and when the endowment fund ships the bars back to Texas or sells them to a buyer. Over the same period, the S&P 500 index – a broad measure of owning stocks – gained 60%.

Posted in Econ & Money, Politics: The Party of Sleaze, Politics: Tinfoil | 3 Comments

The Past Isn’t Even Past

I remember it well:

Editor’s Preamble! Back in 1997 I gave a paper on crowdfunding – I believe the first ever proper paper, although there was one "lost talk" earlier by Eric Hughes – at Financial Cryptography 1997. Now, this conference was the first polymath event in the space, and probably the only one in the space, but that story is another day. Because this was a polymath event, law professor who’s name escapes Michael Froomkin stood up and asked why I hadn’t analysed the crowdfunding system from the point of view of transaction economics.

I blathered – because I’d not heard of it! But I took the cue, went home and read the Ronald Coase paper, and some of his other stuff, and ploughed through the immensely sticky earth of Williamson. Who later joined Coase as a Nobel Laureate.

The prof was right, and I and a few others then turned transaction cost discussion into a cypherpunk topic. Of course, we were one or two decades too early, and hence it all died.

Now, with gusto, Vinay Gupta has revived it all as an explanation of why the blockchain works.

Financial Cryptography: Coase's Blockchain – the first half block – Vinay Gupta explains triple entry.

Posted in Cryptography, Econ & Money | Comments Off on The Past Isn’t Even Past

No Joke

As The Wall Street Journal recently reported, “There’s an Uber for everything now. Washio is for having someone do your laundry, Sprig and SpoonRocket cook your dinner and Shyp will mail things out so you don’t have to brave the post office. Zeel delivers a massage therapist (complete with table). Heal sends a doctor on a house call, while Saucey will rush over alcohol. And by Jeeves — cutesy names are part of the schtick — Dufl will pack your suitcase and Eaze will reup a medical marijuana supply.”

I thought MoDo had been played, but it’s all true, even if some of them only serve Seattle and Silicon Valley.

Posted in Internet, Shopping, So-called Sharing Economy | Comments Off on No Joke

Dangerous Radicals

I was getting annoyed at my radio this morning, as the dulcet-toned pseudo-liberals on NPR called the Greek Government “radical left”. Why is a simple request for rescheduling/partial write-off of debt repayment so radical? It is just basic neo-Keynsian economics. Fact-based and thus liberal, yes, but hardly “left-wing” much less radical.

Krugman explains. And now I understand.

Posted in Econ & Money | 2 Comments