Category Archives: Politics: International

War Games

All that stuff about focusing on attacking Iran? William Arkin thinks it’s true:

Early Despite Denials, U.S. Plans for Iran War: The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has been conducting theater campaign analysis for a full scale war with Iran since at least May 2003, responding to Pentagon directions to prepare for potential operations in the “near term.”

The campaign analysis, called TIRANNT, for “theater Iran near term,” posits an Iraq-like maneuver war between U.S. and Iranian ground forces and incorporates lessons learned from Operation Iraqi Freedom.

These studies, war games, and modeling efforts have been the first step in shifting the bulk of planning from almost exclusive focus on Iraq to Iran. At CENTCOM headquarters in Tampa, Florida, at Army and Air Force CENTCOM support headquarters in Georgia and South Carolina, and at service analysis and operations research organizations like the Center for Army Analysis at Fort Belvoir (thanks readers for correcting me), a monumental effort has been underway to “build” an Iran country baseline for war planning.

As I’ve said before in these pages, I don’t believe that the United States is planning to imminently attack Iran, and I specifically don’t think so because Iran doesn’t have nuclear weapons and it hasn’t lashed out militarily against anyone.

But the United States military is really, really getting ready, building war plans and options, studying maps, shifting its thinking.

I suppose the only lighter-than-bleak lining here is that unless the plan is nukes and/or bunker busters only, they will have to pull out of Iraq in order to have any troops…

But I don’t think the US is going to be greeted with flowers, do you?

Posted in Politics: International | 8 Comments

Some Old Jokes Never Quite Die

Unqualified Offerings documents the transmogrification of an old joke.

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BlogAfrica Quiz — Easy Grading

BlogAfrica has a ten question news quiz on Africa in 2005. Fortunately, they’re much easier graders than I am: 60% is a passing score — and I just squeaked in.

Posted in Politics: International | 7 Comments

The Bush Show Doesn’t Play Well on The Road

Although Elisabeth Bumiller of the New York Times is far too much the courtier and flatterer to say so, it is clear from her description of Bush at the Latin American trade talks that he is a completely incompetent negotiator. And he gets cranky when he misses his naps.

Far Away From Home, No Rest for a Weary President: The next day, an administration official said Mr. Bush would skip a two-hour lunch with the leaders because of “time served” at dinner the night before. But the president’s planned escape was soon moot because the contentious summit talks ran so late, three hours over schedule at that point, that Argentina canceled the lunch.

So by 3:30 p.m., evidently on an empty stomach, Mr. Bush said he was sticking to his itinerary – a 4:05 p.m. Air Force One departure from Argentina to go to Brazil – and he did, leaving an assistant secretary of state behind to sweat out the trade talks. They ended hours later in failure.

“I didn’t get any readout of the president’s mood,” a senior administration official told reporters when asked about Mr. Bush’s state of mind. “But I can’t imagine that he’s mad.”

Well, he certainly did not look happy a lot of the time. Polls indicate that Mr. Bush is the most unpopular American president ever in Latin America, but what has been most striking about watching him on his trip to Argentina, Brazil and Panama, which ends Monday night, is how removed he sometimes seemed from the cacophony around him.

But, even if he is worse than totally useless at multi-national gatherings, it seems there is something that GW Bush does well!

Bush, Replying to Chávez, Urges Latin Americans to Follow U.S.: At one point, [Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio Lula ] da Silva even exhibited a map of his country, which is larger than the continental United States. “Wow! Brazil is big,” Mr. Amorim quoted the American president as responding.

Wait for it, because it’s sure not geography….

After their appearance together, the two presidents and their wives headed off to Mr. da Silva’s residence for an outdoor Brazilian-style barbecue that included several premium cuts of beef, as well as lamb, oxtail and cheese. Mr. Bush later pronounced the meal “unbelievably good.”

Didn’t change the Brazilian position one iota, but he sure can chow down…

Posted in Politics: International | 1 Comment

US Drops ICANN/DNS Bombshell (on WSIS?)

The US Department of Commerce has announced an unexpected new policy regarding the Domain Name System (DNS) and the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN).

In previous pronouncements, the US had indicated that the US would someday release its ultimate control over the “root” — the file that contains the master list of authorized registries and thus determines which TLDs show up on the consensus Internet and who shall have the valuable right to sell names in them. That day would come if and when ICANN fulfilled a number of conditions spelled out in a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU).

Today’s announcement says the opposite: the US plans to keep control of the root indefinitely, thus freezing the status quo. Nothing will change immediately as a result. But the timing is weird, coming as it does only a short time before the forthcoming meeting of the UN-sponsored World Summit on the Information Society (WSIS).

Five years ago, in Wrong Turn in Cyberspace, I wrote (footnote 42, reformatted slightly):

Whether and under what circumstances DoC would turn over the root to ICANN has been the subject of somewhat contradictory pronouncements. In the White Paper, DoC stated, “The U.S. Government would prefer that this transition be complete before the year 2000. To the extent that the new corporation is established and operationally stable, September 30, 2000 is intended to be, and remains, an ‘outside’ date.'” White Paper, supra note 15, at 31,744. More recently, DoC assured Congress that it intends to retain its rights over the DNS:

The Department of Commerce has no intention of transferring control over the root system to ICANN at this time [July 8, 1999]. . . . If and when the Department of Commerce transfers operational responsibility for the authoritative root server for the root server system to ICANN, an [sic] separate contract would be required to obligate ICANN to operate the authoritative root under the direction of the United States government.

Letter from Andrew J. Pincus, DoC General Counsel, to Rep. Tom Bliley, Chairman, United States House Committee on Commerce (July 8, 1999), National Telecommunications and Information Administration.

Meanwhile, or at best slightly later, DoC apparently assured the European Union that it intends to give ICANN full control over the DNS by October 2000:

[T]he U.S. Department of Commerce has repeatedly reassured the Commission that it is still their intention to withdraw from the control of these Internet infrastructure functions and complete the transfer to ICANN by October 2000. . . . The Commission has confirmed to the US authorities that these remaining powers retained by the United States DoC regarding ICANN should be effectively divested, as foreseen in the US White Paper.

Commission of the European Communities, Communication from the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament: The Organization and Management of the Internet International and European Policy Issues 1998-2000, at 14 (Apr. 7, 2000) (emphasis added), Information Society Promotion Office. Recently, DoC assured the GAO that “it has no current plans to transfer policy authority for the authoritative root server to ICANN, nor has it developed a scenario or set of circumstances under which such control would be transferred.” GAO Report, supra note 28, at 30. ICANN meanwhile stated on June 30, 2000, that “[s]ince it appears that all of the continuing tasks under the joint project may not be completed by the current termination date of the MOU, the MOU should be extended until all the conditions required to complete full transition to ICANN are accomplished.” Second Status Report Under ICANN/US Government Memorandum of Understanding (30 June 2000), § D.4, (June 30, 2000).

Since then, every time the MOU with ICANN has lapsed, the US has observed that the terms were not met — but extended the agreement. And every time, ICANN has said that it’s just about to meet all the necessary conditions any day now…although it never does. And in fact, ICANN has come closer and closer, although one or two major, perhaps insurmountable, obstacles remain (agreements with the root server operators and especially agreement with the ccTLD operators).

Thus, the ambiguity remained. Most recently, in fact, Commerce had sent signals suggesting it was leaning in ICANN’s favor, notably an announcement that the current MOU extension would be the last one — leading me and other observers to think the fix was in for turning ICANN loose.

But today, in a surprise statement by the Commerce Department, the US government took out the ambiguity — and said it intended to keep its authority over the root. In the short and medium term, the implications of this statement are political, not operational as the status quo for operations remains unchanged.

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Posted in Internet, Law: Internet Law, Politics: International | 8 Comments

Three Iraq-Related Posts From ‘First Draft’

First Draft is an excellent blog. Here are snippets of three posts in a row that are well worth reading.

U.S. Forces In Iraq Violate Geneva Convention (Reuters)

Thousands of people are detained in Iraq without due process in apparent violation of international law, the United Nations said on Wednesday, adding that 6,000 of the country's 10,000 prisoners were in the hands of the U.S. military.

In Iraq, “one of the major human rights challenges remains the detention of thousands of persons without due process,” Secretary-General Kofi Annan said in a report to the 15-nation U.N. Security Council.

Brits Cut and Run? (Glasgow Herald)

BRITISH forces may begin a withdrawal from Iraq “in three or four months”, a senior UK commander claimed yesterday.

Lieutenant-Colonel Andrew Williams leads a 1000-man battle-group based near the flashpoint town of al Amarah, about 100 miles north of Basra.

However, the Ministry of Defence played down the suggestion of any timetable for the removal of the 8500 UK troops in Iraq, saying that any cut in force levels was “contingent on the security situation and the availability of Iraqi forces to shoulder responsibility”.

Losing Control of the Mercenaries (The Guardian)

A group of American security guards in Iraq have alleged they were beaten, stripped and threatened with a snarling dog by US marines when they were detained after an alleged shooting incident outside Falluja last month.

“I never in my career have treated anybody so inhumane,” one of the contractors, Rick Blanchard, a former Florida state trooper, wrote in an email quoted in the Los Angeles Times. “They treated us like insurgents, roughed us up, took photos, hazed [bullied] us, called us names.”

According to Peter Singer, a Brookings Institute scholar and author of the book Corporate Warriors, private military contractors in Iraq are operating in a black hole as they do not fall within the military chain of command. “What appears to have happened here is tension between forces bubbling to the surface,” he told the Guardian.

But he said the incident also raised the question of what happens to contractors if they are caught doing something wrong, such as firing on civilians, as their legal status is not defined. “If the marines think [the contractors] did do something illegal there is no process they can go through. Who are they going to hand them over to?” Mr Singer said. “There have been more than 20,000 [contractors] on the ground in Iraq for more than two years and not one has been prosecuted for anything.”

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