Category Archives: 2012 Election

The (866) 540-3140 Mystery

Every day — every day! — for the last eight or so days I’ve been at home I’ve gotten a robo-call from an outfit that identifies itself as “Independent Voter Research.”

Every day — every day! — the robot asks me the same demographic questions (age, party, likely voter, race) and then asks me who I plan to vote for. Once I think it maybe also asked what I think of the President’s job performance. At the end of the short quiz, it gives a number at which ‘Independent Voter Research’ can be contacted: (866) 540-3140.

Something odd here. What kind of poll calls the same person every day? Is it looking for a different demographic, hoping the other registered voter will answer the phone? Is it some weird new type of tracking poll where they are looking to see if a given fixed population changes its views over time? Some unfathomable scam, looking for old folks to rip off? Some polling outfit ripping off some campaign? Some campaign with more money than sense?

After last night’s call, I’d had it. I called the number, and got a recording saying that they were sorry they had missed me, but were just calling to get my opinion; obviously a message for those with caller ID. Same thing again today.

So it seems that “Independent Voter Research” is not a group that really wants me to know about it. On to the internet, where they have no apparent web page. But looking up the number leads me to frantic discussions between Ron Paul supporters about a plot to get info about delegates in Virginia and elsewhere. More interestingly, it also leads me to a Rolling Stone article from Februay, Romney Camp Tapped Volunteers For Deceptive Polling Effort in Michigan in which I learn that the “Independent Voter Research” monicker and the same phone number were in fact used by the Romney campaign in a shady project in Michigan. But that project involved live callers; this one is a recording.

So, assuming this is a Romney project, what on earth do they stand to gain from robo-calling me daily?

Posted in 2012 Election | 21 Comments

Downballot Recommendations for the Aug 14 Miami-Dade Primary

Figuring out who to vote for downballot is a lot of work. The judicial part is especially hard for voters — even for a lawyer like me who isn’t very plugged into the local scene.

My rule of thumb is to vote to re-elect incumbent Judges unless there is a strong reason not to. That bar is amply met in one race (vote FOR Diana Gonzales and against Pando); otherwise I’m voting for the incumbents. The more difficult cases are the open seats.

For Circuit Judge, that would be Groups 15, 47 & 49

In Group 15 I prefer Robert Coppel, a former PD with extensive trial experience; the other candidate sounds bad to me, not least for the endorsement by the Christian Family Coalition.

In Group 47, Alex Labora (MBA Wharton ’83; JD U.M. ’82) has a wide range of experience (he is also the husband of sitting Drug Court Judge Deborah White-Labora); Maria de Jesus Santovenia (JD U.Penn ’88) has been working as an assistant city attorney in Miami and North Miami Beach. The Herald prefers Santovenia. According to the Herald’s questionnaire she spent much more of her own money on the campaign, and also has more civic endorsements. They both seem like serious candidates. She’ll likely win, and I’m OK with that.

In Group 49 pits ex-Miami City Commissioner Victor De Yurre (JD St. Mary’s University School of Law [Texas] ; LL.M Tax, UM) against Teresa Mary Pooler (JD UM). Both are experienced lawyers; De Yurre has political and extensive civil law experience; Pooler has a criminal law background. On the other hand, De Yurre’s political career had extensive smoke (but no fire) when it came to corruption – he was investigated over and over … but always exonerated. The Herald prefers Pooler; the New Times points to De Yurre’s ownership of a troubled business. How you vote on this one probably depends on how you feel about De Yurre (or even if you remember him!). Pooler is not endorsed by the Christian Family Coalition, De Yurre is…so I guess it’s Pooler.

County Court

Group 1
Patricia Marino-Pedraza (incumbent). The CFC endorsed Marino-Pedraza, but I’m leaning to vote for her anyway. That said, I wasn’t impressed by Marino-Pedraza’s husband’s attempt to get her opponent, knocked off the ballot. And she has a relatively high (20%) of lawyers rating her unqualified.

Group 10
The CFC endorsed Diana Gonzales. (So did the Herald.) Vote for her anyway. Pando should go.

Group 20
Fleur Jeannine Lobree is the incumbent, and well-regarded.

Group 24
Andrea Wolfson is the incumbent. The CFC endorsed Wolfson, as did the Herald. Fellow lawyers rate her highly. Easy choice.

Group 27
Ivonne Cuesta (JD Nova ’01) vs. Jacci Suzan Seskin (UM ’02). The Herald endorsed Cuesta over Seskin, a nurse turned PD, citing Cuesta’s exprience of 75 trials. IMHO ten years since law school is on the light side for a judge, although we often settle for even less around here. On the other hand, Cuesta has been nominated for a judgeship four times by the Judicial Nominating Commission, which counts for something. And she has a higher rating from fellow lawyers. So Cuesta.

Group 28
Tanya Brinkley (JD UM ’95) vs. Enrique Yabor (JD “Ole Miss” ’99) (CFC endorsed). Herald-endorsed Brinkley has a wider experience, and impressive endorsements. She’s been nominated by the Judicial Nominating Commission nine times (is that a record?) And she isn’t Yabor. No contest.

Group 33
Teretha Lundy Thomas (incumbent) (and the challenger is bad).

Group 40
Dan Cohen (incumbent)


My Downballot Palmcard
(clip and save!)

29 State Attorney: KF Rundle

Circuit Judges
79 David C. Miller (incumbent)
81 Robert Coppel
83-84 Pick ’em (Labora = 83; Santovenia =84)
86 Pooler
88 Marino-Pedraza (incumbent) (?)
89 Gonzales (!)

County
92 Lobree (incumbent)
95 Wolfson (incumbent)
96 Cuesta
98 Brinkley
101 Thomas
103 Cohn (incumbent)

Property Appraiser
106 Garcia

Pit Bulls
501 No

Posted in 2012 Election, Miami | 2 Comments

Welcome, Paul Ryan

Here’s how the Obama campaign will welcome Paul Ryan:

As others have noted, Romney’s selection of Ryan is a gift to moderate and liberal Democrats: in the course of identifying why the Ryan-Romney budget plan would be so destructive, Democrats are likely to say things making a lame-duck ‘grand compromise’ (aka grand sellout) on social security and Medicare much less likely.

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“Son of Boss”

The diabolically effective part of the latest Obama ad isn’t that it suggests Romney paid 10% or less in taxes, but rather that it links him to a tax scandal with the delicious name of “Son of Boss”.

Because the thing most likely to sink Romney isn’t his tax avoidance but rather that he talks and acts like the boss’s son he is.

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“Worried” – Obama for America TV Ad – YouTube

By contemporary standards, this Obama TV ad is actually substantive, but it falls down a bit on the web backup. "Worried" – Obama for America TV Ad:

It also has a link to www.barackobma.com/plans where you are invited to go for more details. Although extant, they are rather scant:

FORWARD

  • President Obama is calling on millionaires and billionaires to pay their fair share, and believes no family earning less than $250,000 should face higher taxes
  • President Obama has a plan to give tax cuts to companies that bring jobs back to the U.S.
  • President Obama is taking a balanced approach to cutting the deficit without sacrificing investments needed to grow the economy and create jobs
  • President Obama’s plan would help grow the economy for the long term by investing in education, small businesses, clean energy, and infrastructure
  • President Obama responsibly ended the war in Iraq, is bringing our troops home from Afghanistan, and will use half the savings to reduce the deficit

NOT BACKWARD

  • Mitt Romney wants to reward the wealthiest with even more tax breaks
  • Mitt Romney would create new incentives for companies to ship jobs overseas
  • Mitt Romney’s plan would add $5 trillion in tax cuts skewed to the rich, either increasing the deficit or requiring tax increases on the middle-class
  • Mitt Romney supports a plan that would require slashing funding for investments in our future, Social Security, and Medicare
  • Mitt Romney criticized the end of the Iraq war as “tragic,” and has offered no plan for Afghanistan except keeping troops there indefinitely

We could probably stand a few more details online, no?

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Romney Starts Another Painful Week (Updated)

Good thing for Romney that nobody reads Newsweek any more. The article isn’t available online (yet?), but I have to say judging just from the cover it looks like a cheap shot. In any case, I’d have said the problem was arrogance, not insecurity.

(Just to make things worse, my son, seeing this cover’s top tagline said, “I knew Romney was a job killer, but I didn’t realize he was a mass murderer.”)

Meanwhile, Romneyshambles Continues in Israel (per Kevin Drum).

Update (7/30): Here’s a taste of the article:

The Sun even went so far as to dub him “Mitt the Twit.”

It was an astonishing faux pas—one of many packed into his brief visit. And it makes one wonder: if elected, Romney is going to have to work hand-in-glove with Prime Minister David Cameron and other world leaders on the ongoing global financial crisis and other issues. What unintended offenses are going to tumble out of his mouth then, when he’s representing our nation on the world stage?

The episode highlights what’s really wrong with Romney. He’s kind of lame, and he’s really … annoying. He keeps saying these … things, these incredibly off-key things. Then he apologizes immediately—with all the sincerity of a hostage. Or maybe he doesn’t: sometimes he whines about the subsequent attacks on him. But the one thing he never does? Man up, double down, take his lumps.

In 1987, this magazine created a famous hubbub by labeling George H.W. Bush a “wimp” on its cover. “The Wimp Factor.” Huge stir. And not entirely fair—the guy had been an aviator in the war, the big war, the good war, and he was even shot down out over the Pacific, cockpit drenched in smoke and fumes, at an age (20) when in most states he couldn’t even legally drink a beer. In hindsight, Poppy looks like Dirty Harry Callahan compared with Romney, who spent his war (Vietnam) in—ready?—Paris. Where he learned … French. Up to his eyeballs in deferments. Where Reagan saddled up a horse with the masculine name of El Alamein, Mitt saddles up something called Rafalca—except that he doesn’t even really do that, his wife does (dressage). And speaking of Ann—did you notice that she was the one driving the Jet Ski on their recent vacation, while Mitt rode on the back, hanging on, as Paul Begala put it to me last week, “like a helpless papoose”?

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