Category Archives: 2012 Election

“Independent Voter Research” Mystery Continues

The Independent Voter Network (IVN) suffers from a partial name collision with the self-styled “Independent Voter Research” (IVR) group that I recently complained was calling me every day. IVN has done a long posting on the mystery of who “Independent Voter Research” might be. Some of it is based on my experiences, but IVN also reports the following fun fact, of which I was not aware:

In Florida, there is a statute that specifically prohibits callers from stating that the call is from an entity that doesn’t exist.

Title IX, Chapter 106.147, paragraph 1(d) of the 2012 Florida Statutes states:

“No telephone call shall state or imply that the caller represents a nonexistent person or organization.”

The willful violation of this provision is considered a first degree misdemeanor. It is punishable by a fine of up to $1,000 or imprisonment of no more than a year.

(From the context, this applies at least to politically related mass calls, and probably to mass political polls also. I’m not sure it would necessarily apply more generally.)

As to the mystery itself, IVN too hit a brick wall:

No one has been able to confirm the existence of Independent Voter Research. There is very little evidence to support the claim it is a real polling agency. It has no website nor any online presence. The firm’s contact information is not listed. The only connection there is to the mysterious organization is an 866 number that only connects callers to an automated message.

Despite the inability to locate Independent Voter Research, no one has been able to conclusively link it to a campaign.

I’d say more “because of” than “despite”, but either way the group remains a mystery, and that last quoted sentence is a much better summary of the state of play than IVN’s headline “Secretive Phone Polling Firm Shows Ties to Romney Campaign”.

Posted in 2012 Election | 18 Comments

Life at Political Ground Zero

President Barack Obama and Republican presidential candidate Governor Mitt Romney will be visiting the University of Miami on Wednesday, September 19th (Governor Romney) and Thursday, September 20th (President Obama) as special guests of Univision broadcasts entitled: “El Gran Encuentro con el Gobernador Mitt Romney” and “El Gran Encuentro con el Presidente Barack Obama.”

These two special programs – scheduled to take place in the BankUnited Center Fieldhouse – will be conversations with the candidates. While all questions will be posed in Spanish, they will be answered in English by the candidates and translated to Spanish where necessary. The events will be taped by Univision and will be aired later each day. The start time for each event has not yet been finalized.

Tickets for these two events will be very limited. Per our agreement with the two presidential campaigns and Univision, UM Young & College Democrats and certain affiliated organizations will have initial access to the student tickets for President Obama’s event. Similarly, UM College Republicans and certain affiliated organizations will have initial access to the student tickets for Governor Romney’s event.

Remaining student tickets will be distributed via a lottery system.

There are no tickets available for faculty or staff.

Shame about the last part, though.

Source: Miami Herald

Posted in 2012 Election, Coral Gables | Comments Off on Life at Political Ground Zero

Romney Ad — Little Substance, Wrong Subliminals

#Romneyfail: Yesterday I received my first piece of direct mail from the Romney campaign. As a long-time registered Democrat, I’m probably not high on their lists of target demographics, but presumably Team Romney has nearly unlimited money, and they have to win Florida.

Under the circumstances, I would expect something considerably more impressive than this rather limp and hard-to-read bifold. I’ve uploaded a scan of all four pages of the Romeny direct mail piece for those who want to see just how hard it was to read the white letters on the dark background (never a good idea IMHO), but for now I want to concentrate on just the cover image, the one to the right of this post.

A hand in the cookie jar. No doubt the idea is to sell the Republican idea of Democratic budgetary fecklessness. But I think the ad misfires on two fronts. First, this week it’s Paul Ryan who seems to have his hand in the cookie jar — both for cooking the books on this budget plan. To be fair, given the supine history of our press, Team Romney could be excused for failing to predict that arithmetic gravity would catch up with Paul Ryan, so let’s go to the other, more subtle but also more fatal way in which this ad fails.

See that hand? To me it looks like a white hand. The arm is ambiguously dark, but I at least saw it as white and shaded. The message it sends in this election when associated with an electoral mailer is that it’s Romney’s hand in the cookie jar. I don’t know if the designers of this ad even flirted with the idea of a black(er) limb, but at some point they’d stray too far into the ‘playing the race card’ territory. It would have been much smarter to use a different image.

And if you struggle through the very-hard-to-read white text on page three looking for substance of what Romney would do, it’s pretty thin gruel:

  • Cap the federal budget at 20% of GDP, then even lower than that. Leaving aside what that would do to the economy stuck in a liquidity trap, is that a meaningful number to most voters?
  • “Pursue” a balance budget amendment. That’s a pretty limp verb. And the idea of course is silly — what if there’s a real crisis like war or deeper Depression?
  • “Repeal Obamacare”. Pity that arrived on the same day as extensive coverage of Romney’s dithering on what he plans to repeal and what he’d keep.
  • “Improve Efficiency and Effectiveness”. Oh heck, we’re back to balancing the budget by eliminating ‘waste, fraud and abuse’. Not that tired line again.

I thought Team Romney was supposed to be good at management? This is not even Bush-league: both GW & GHW did it a lot better.

Posted in 2012 Election | 1 Comment

‘The Ryan Sinkhole’

Thomas Edsall, at the NYT:

What people have not been talking about enough is that the Ryan budget contains an $897 billion sinkhole: massive but unexplained cuts in such discretionary domestic programs as education, food and drug inspection, workplace safety, environmental protection and law enforcement.

The scope of the cuts – stunning in their breadth — is hidden. To find the numbers, turn to page 16 of the Concurrent Resolution on the Budget – Fiscal Year 2013. In Table 2, Fiscal Year 2013 Budget Resolution Discretionary Spending, in the far right hand column, you’ll see the nearly $897 billion figure, which appears on the line marked “BA” for Budget Authority under Allowances (920) as $896,884 (because these figures are listed in millions of dollars).

It goes on to give the clearest explanation of why the Ryan budget is either hokum, or else would mean cuts drastic beyond anyone but a Ron Paul supporter’s dreams:

Under the Ryan budget, “Mandatory and Defense and Nondefense Discretionary Spending” – which includes Function 920 Allowances, but excludes Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid — would fall from 12.5 percent of Gross Domestic Product in 2011 to 6.75 percent in 2023, 5.75 percent in 2030, 4.75 percent in 2040 and 3.75 percent in 2050, according to an analysis by the Congressional Budget Office.

The C.B.O. cautiously notes how difficult it would be to cut such spending to 3.75 percent of G.D.P.:

By comparison, spending in this category has exceeded 8 percent of G.D.P. in every year since World War II. Spending for defense alone has not been lower than 3 percent of G.D.P. in any year during that period.

My question is this: what is this analysis doing in the Opinion section? It sounds suspiciously like arithmetic. Is arithmetic relegated to “opinion” now that one party no longer believes in it?

Image © 2006 Brian Stansberry Some rights reserved.

Posted in 2012 Election, Econ & Money | 1 Comment

A Bunch of Horrible Florida Constitutional Amendments

That’s what the Florida state legislature has served up for the public’s degustation on the ballot this November. Some of these proposed amendments to the Florida State Constitution could seriously damage the state for years to come. Others are pretty naked attempts to whip up the Republican base and get them to the polls in November.

Below I offer you links to the full text of the Amendments, and grade them on a 10 point scale for (Ir)Rationality, Evil, and Pandering. Points are bad.

Florida Amendment 1Health Care Services is a meaningless gesture of attempted state nullification of the mandate rule found in the federal Affordable Care Act (ACA). But if the ACA were ever repealed, the amendment would prohibit Florida from enacting Romneycare here.

  • (Ir)Rationality: 10. It doesn’t do anything. So long as the federal ACA is on the books, Amendment 1 is null and void due to the Supremacy Clause of the US Constitution.
  • Evil: 7. It’s against universal health care, a position which is certainly evil, but Amendment 1 doesn’t rate a 10 because it doesn’t actually do anything for now. Then again, Amendment 1 does have a small residual possibility of doing harm in the unlikely events that (1) the ACA is in fact repealed and (2) the state of Florida decides to copy Romneycare from Massachusetts, or do a state ACA, which are in fact more or less the same thing.
  • Pandering: 10. As this amendment won’t actually change anything, it amounts to a tremendous waste of effort and state money; this is nothing less than an abuse of the constitutional amendment process in the hopes of firing up the base in a swing state.

Florida Amendment 2Veterans Disabled Due To Combat Injury; Homestead Property Tax Discount This amendment increases the homestead exemption for disabled veterans.

  • (Ir)Rationality: 4. The state Constitution is a poor mechanism for this sort of fine-grained tax policy.
  • Evil: 2. These may be worthy beneficiaries, but cluttering up the Constitution with a relatively small tax policy aimed at maybe tens of thousands of people at most in a state as big as Florida is not a good idea. Also other disabled people might be equally worthy.
  • Pandering: 7. If the GOP legislative majority and GOP governor want to help disabled veterans, why not do it via legislation not involving the homestead exemption — which would be quicker and surer? Because this is so much more visible?

Florida Amendment 3State Government Revenue Limitation. This is a ‘starve the beast‘ amendment targeted at the state budget. It stops the Florida budget from growing faster than population increases plus inflation — regardless of what our needs might be, and working from the current severely deflated spending base.

Florida Amendment 4Property Tax Limitations; Property Value Decline; Reduction For Nonhomestead Assessment Increases; Delay Of Scheduled Repeal. This is another ‘starve the beast’ amendment, but targeted at local governments. This one cuts the rate at which assessments on real property can increase from the current cap of 10% per year to 5% per year. It also gives a bonus homestead exemption to so-called first-time home buyers but actually defines the group more broadly to include anyone who hasn’t owned a homestead property in Florida during the last three years. And there are other complex provisions designed to keep ratable value from rising to reflect the true value of homes. Florida Trend says Amendment 4 would cost local governments up to $600 million per year, money that in my opinion they would have no realistic hope of replacing. Which is undoubtedly the point. There is of course nothing in here about what should be cut, what will have to be cut, or alternate revenue sources.

  • (Ir)Rationality: 10. This is much more about killing local government than about helping homeowners. And even as a homeowner relief bill it’s not good policy: Annual 10% increases on the taxable value of a home may sound like a lot, but in fact it is only fair: there are many homes whose rateable value greatly lags the market value because they haven’t been sold in a long time. The effect of further shrinking the cap is to worsen an existing problem: two identical homes will be taxed at grossly different rates if one of them was recently purchased. That disparity means that the millage rate has to be higher than it otherwise would be, in order to make up the lost revenue. The disparity also depresses the market for homes, since taxes on new sales are so much higher than staying-in-place rates. Blocking increases in the assessed value of homes may help elderly people on fixed incomes, but it does so inefficiently — in part because the greatest benefits go to rich people, who have the most valuable, and likely to appreciate, homes! — at the expense of everyone else, especially young first-time buyers. There are far more efficient ways to help seniors on fixed incomes keep their homes. Like Amendment 11, for example.
  • Evil: 10. Say goodbye to local services. Sell off the public libraries. Worry about police, fire, trash. This will also hurt schools, already suffering from budget cuts, but no worries — Florida will give you vouchers for religious schools if Amendment 8 passes.
  • Pandering: 10. Who doesn’t like the sound of “property tax limitations”?

Florida Amendment 5State Courts. This is a mix of good and bad, with the bad greatly predominating. It gives the Senate the power to confirm Gubernatorial appointments to the Florida Supreme Court (I’d say that’s good, however the chips may fall). But it also gives the legislature the power to repeal court rules by a simple majority instead of the current two thirds (I’d say that’s bad). It prevents the Supreme Court from re-adopting a rule rejected twice by the legislature (I can see both sides of this, but on balance don’t think I like it). It changes the way the legislature can tinker with the Judicial Qualifications Commission’s rules to increase legislative power (clearly bad). Makes legislative witch hunts against Justices easier by increasing the House Speaker’s access to the Judicial Qualifications Commission’s files (very bad).

  • (Ir)Rationality: 4. There’s an evil logic at work here, but many of the changes other than the last one can be defended as increasing popular control (via the legislature) over the judiciary. Unlike most academics, I’m not against that. I do think, however, that the fine-grained level of the proposed intrusions is bad for the courts and bad for the public.
  • Evil: 8. What this is really about is intimidating Justices, and reducing access to courts for regular people.
  • Pandering: 2. This will read to most voters as technical. I don’t think this is a hot button issue for most people other than insurance company lawyers and the most ardent right-to-life voters.

Florida Amendment 6 – Prohibition On Public Funding Of Abortions; Construction Of Abortion Rights. There is at present no public funding of abortions, so this is another amendment whose main feature doesn’t actually change anything. This amendment would, however, entrench current policy against future popular majorities. Worse, by exempting abortions from the Florida Constitution’s privacy clause, the amendment would allow the legislature to enact a parental consent law twice held unconstitutional by the the Florida Supreme Court.

  • (Ir)Rationality: 0. Even though part of this is about entrenching a policy that doesn’t seem likely to change, it’s hard to call this amendment irrational since at least the anti-privacy part does have a real effect, one that could not be achieved without a constitutional amendment.
  • Evil: 10. Another attack on women’s rights, with extra added attacks on women’s privacy.
  • Pandering: 10. Surely the biggest get-out-the-vote amendment on the ballot, driven by a headline “Prohibition On Public Funding Of Abortions” which is about the part of the amendment that doesn’t actually change anything (at present).

Florida Amendment 7 – There is no longer an Amendment 7, as it fell by the wayside, making it feel like one of the best of the proposed Constitutional Amendments simply by virtue of not being on the ballot.

  • (Ir)Rationality: 1. One point for using up a number doing nothing.
  • Evil: 0.
  • Pandering: 0.

Florida Amendment 8 – Religious Freedom. The key words here are “deleting the prohibition against using revenues from the public treasury directly or indirectly in aid of any church, sect, or religious denomination or in aid of any sectarian institution.” In other words, let’s undermine the separation between church and state — in particular let’s subsidize religious schools. (Will anyone campaign against this by pointing out that the state will have to offer subsidies to Islamic schools — Madrassas! — too? Probably not.)

  • (Ir)Rationality: 5. The First Amendment to the US Constitution doesn’t prevent vouchers that parents can spend for religious schooling. This amendment to the Florida constitution would smooth the way towards introducing such a voucher system in Florida.
  • Evil: 8. This is part of the campaign against public education. The more middle class parents can be encouraged to leave the public schools, the easier it will be to starve them too. Vouchers do some good for poor families that want a religious option, but they also work as a subsidy to people who do not need the subsidy. More generally, I don’t think we win by eroding the church/state divide.
  • Pandering: 10. “Religious Freedom” sounds good, doesn’t it? We’re all for that. I’m actually surprised they got away with calling it that, given that the amendment is really about allowing state subsidies to religious institutions.

Florida Amendment 9 – Homestead Property Tax Exemption For Surviving Spouse of Military Veteran or First Responder. Much like Amendment 2: with a somewhat larger but still arbitrary class of beneficiaries.

  • (Ir)Rationality: 4. See Amendment 2.
  • Evil: 2. See Amendment 2.
  • Pandering: 8. Slightly more pandering than Amendment 2, since it is about widows (what about orphans, darn it?).

Florida Amendment 10 – Tangible Personal Property Tax Exemption. This would prevent counties, municipalities, school districts, and other local governments from taxing “tangible personal property” with a total assessed value over $25,000 but less than $50,000. This is a tax break for small businesses that are required to pay local taxes on computers and other equipment. Florida Trend says about 150,000 businesses would benefit from doubling the current $25K cap, and local governments would lose $20+ million per year.

  • (Ir)Rationality: 1. Small change.
  • Evil: 2. Small change.
  • Pandering: 5. I bet some businesses will be happier about saving on the paperwork than the $133 average they will save per firm. Perhaps some low-information voters will think this is about taxing them for their boats or expensive cars?

Florida Amendment 11 – Additional Homestead Exemption; Low-Income Seniors Who Maintain Long-Term Residency On Property; Equal To Assessed Value. This one would allow the Legislature to “allow counties and municipalities to grant an additional homestead tax exemption equal to the assessed value of homestead property if the property has a just value less than $250,000 to an owner who has maintained permanent residency on the property for not less than 25 years, who has attained age 65, and who has a low household income as defined by general law.”

  • (Ir)Rationality: 0. This one actually makes some sense. And the cost is very small: $9 million or so per year.
  • Evil: 0
  • Pandering: 0

Florida Amendment 12 – Appointment Of Student Body President To Board Of Governors Of The State University System. Currently students at FSU are cut out from participating in the selection of the student member of the Board of Governors of Florida’s State University System because FSU isn’t a member of the Florida Student Association, whose president has served ex offico. This amendment fixes the FSU problem, but at the price of cutting out the current intermediary, the Florida Student Association, entirely. Instead, the Board of Governors will have to set up a new body to serve as the intermediary that picks the student representative. While enfranchising FSU seems like a no-brainer, neither the prospect of duplication of functions nor the prospect of a standalone body whose sole function is to elect one of its own to be the Board member is particularly appealing. I suspect this will not enhance student representation.

  • (Ir)Rationality: 3. A lousy solution to a real problem.
  • Evil: 2. Surely there was a better way to solve this?
  • Pandering: 0. Whatever you think of the solution, it is a real problem.
Posted in 2012 Election, Florida | 4 Comments

How to Get Tickets for Bill Clinton’s Obama Rally in Miami on Tuesday Night

Campaign Event with President Bill Clinton

Date: Tuesday, September 11, 2012
Doors open at 5:30p.m.
Location: Florida International University –
US Century Bank Arena
11200 SW 8th Street, Miami, FL 33199

How to Get Tickets:
Click on the link: http://fl.barackobama.com/President-Clinton-in-Miami

Tickets are FREE and required for entry, with one ticket per person.
Tickets are first come, first served, so get yours NOW!

OFA Locations to pick up tickets:
OFA Office (Hialeah) – 419 W 49th Street, Suite 105, Hialeah, FL 33012
OFA Office (Pinecrest) – 11315 South Dixie Highway, Pinecrest, FL 33156

Information via email from Miami-Dade Democratic Party.

(I can’t go – it’s back-to-school night.)

Posted in 2012 Election, Miami | 1 Comment